Tuesday, September 25, 2012

The Great Gatsby Curve, Income Dispersion, and Friedman


                  Friedman’s writing was clear, persuasive, and very much in line with the concepts taught in Econ50 from market efficiency to neighborhood effects (externalities) and potential market failures. While I found many of his ideas foundational and convincing, I was unimpressed by his analysis of income distribution. I believe this was, in large part, shaped by recent research and movement within the United States in terms of income inequality. First what I agree with. I agree with Friedman’s general thoughts on the subject—namely that some degree of income dispersion is to be expected. Individuals have different tastes for work, there is a degree of randomness, and the importance of distributing significantly due to an individual’s production. I also agree that future income is significantly predicted by initial endowments, both of fundamental human capital and wealth. Finally, I agree with the conclusion that paying each person an equal wage is both undesirable in terms of overall growth and in the philosophical sense unfair.
                  Mr. Friedman and I part ways in two significant areas. I am not entirely convinced that that it maximizes societal wellbeing for there to be complete freedom to transfer wealth from parent to child. However, this is more of a philosophical debate between utilitarianism and libertarianism—one that I will leave to focus on the economic debate. The fundamental disagreement I have is how he treats the distinction between income inequality and distribution of opportunity. The distinction itself is important and he is right in his initial definitions, there are two types of inequality: “short-run differences in income, and differences in long-run income status. Consider two societies that have the same distribution of annual income. In one there is great mobility and change so that the position of particular families in the income hierarch varies widely from year to year.” (171) The other has greater rigidity. In a real sense, there is less inequality in the first. However, Friedman then claims that the two types of inequality are likely to be negatively correlated: “competitive free-enterprise capitalism tends to substitute the one [type of inequality: opportunity/result] for the other.” (171) This is where I, and I think the data, disagree.
                  Let’s look at a graph from the current head of the CEA, Alan Krueger:

What do we see here but a positive correlation between intergenerational earnings elasticity (a proxy for intergenerational mobility, or more technically defined the frequency of movement between quintiles of income distribution) and the Gini coefficient (a single number representing the equality of a country’s income distribution based off a mathematical calculation and the Lorenz curve). Likewise, a cursory glance reveals those countries that are generally deemed more socialist (Scandinavian countries) not only have less inequality of result (Gini) but also have more equality of opportunity. Looking at Krueger’s comments on the graph we see just a sampling of explanations for why this might be the case: “There is a cost to the economy and society if children from low-income families do not have anything close to the opportunities to develop and use their talents as the more fortunate kin from better off families who can attend better schools, receive college prep tutoring, and draw on a network of family connections in the job market.”
                  Looking at recent trends in the US we see the trend moving towards less equality of opportunity and less equality of result. The OECD identified 6 potential causes for this:   Globalization (minimal impact);  Progress in technology;  less redistributive tax/benefit systems;  an increase in part time or atypical workers;  changing family structures and regulatory reforms;  changes in labor market institutions widening inequality. These changes may imply a changing market, one that is less dependent on the ability of an individual but based on investments in human capital often available only to those who already have money.  Some of these are automatically influenced by governmental policy.

                  Friedman glosses over some of the negative impact of concentrated wealth ranging from worse health, more political corruption, lower economic growth, more frequent revolution and civil unrest, and a number of other negative impacts (economists writing on these include, but are not limited to: Torsten Persson and Guido Tabellini, Stiglitz). It is unclear that if the free market is moving towards a newly unequal  distribution, that this is an efficient or desirable result.
                  While there may be some theoretical coherency to Friedman’s argument that the free market will reward those with the ability and willingness to produce, the data seems to support that there is a market failure preventing this from occurring. I suspect Friedman would like to argue that this failure is actually due to unintended consequences and rent seeking through government policy. However, given recent increasing inequality corresponding with deregulation and the fact that more socialist countries have had more equality of opportunity seems to undermine a number of Friedman’s claims on the subject.

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